Chapter 1
It had been a great day, Gareth had managed to sell out of almost all their potions and at the same time collect several tidbits of local gossip. Gossip being the main reason for their visit to the town. His partner, Tobias, had promised that they would be spending the night in an inn. On reflection though partner might be stretching the details of their relationship slightly. Tobias still treated him almost the same as he had when he was an apprentice to Tobias.
He still had to gather the raw materials, mix the potions and handle the sales. Tobias spent much of his time talking to the acquaintances he seemed to have in every small town they visited. Having recently celebrated what both Tobias and he had agreed was probably Gareth’s twentieth birthday, he had been looking forward to a dinner that he hadn’t prepared. Tobias could burn the occasional root or rabbit over the campfire but Gareth had quickly learned the food was more edible if he prepared it himself.
Eating at an inn, an inn with a real bed, would be an incredible treat. Where was his partner anyway? He had gone off with a messenger only a few minutes ago, saying he would be right back.
As if waiting for Gareth to finish that thought, Tobias stepped around the edge of the wagon and said, “Pack everything up. We’ll be spending the night on the road. That was an urgent message from an old friend of mine. He needs our help and he needs it quickly.”
So much for spending the night in a bed. Despite the partnership, there was no question that Tobias was in charge. While their real money was made buying and selling information, they used the potion sales as a means of information gathering. In his late forties, with a lean frame, short grey hair and an intense look, Tobias took pains to look like an ordinary peddler. Not tonight though, tonight Tobias was focused on a problem and Gareth knew there was no point in arguing. Really he didn’t mind another night on the road, Gareth thought. He had almost forgotten what a bed felt like anyway.
Traveling at their best speed, the trip still took three days. During the time on the road, Gareth tried hard to get more details from Tobias, why they were pushing so hard, what they would be expected to accomplish, anything. Nothing worked. Tobias was pleasant enough in his responses but said he knew it almost as little as Gareth did. He would only say this trip was to help a friend in need and Gareth would learn more when they arrived.
If Gareth pressed harder, Tobias always seemed to find a plant growing on the side of the road that he felt Gareth needed to memorize all the medicinal properties. By the second day, tired of being quizzed about every weed in their path, Gareth decided he didn’t need to know after all and spent most the remaining time talking to their dog, Jerome.
It was mid-morning as they neared the city. With a sinking heart, Gareth realized this was another seaport. He hated seaports. All that water was just unnatural.
The bored guards at the city gates just waved them on in but Tobias had him stop to inquire where his friend lived. The speed of the answer made it obvious that Tobias’ friend was known to the guards. A single name and they were eager to help, giving directions and going so far as to offer one of the nearby recruits as a guide. Turning down the offer, Tobias thanked them and had Gareth drive on to the estate
What an estate. It was obvious that the Tobias’ friend was well-off. His property was huge. Close to the rather large mansion were several horses grazing in a well fenced pasture. At the far end of the pasture was a barn almost the same size as the house. There would be no problem finding space for the wagon.
As they rolled up to the front, a number of servants appeared from every corner of the property. A man identifying himself as a groom took the reins and started to lead the horse away. Jerome took that moment to make his appearance. He had been sleeping inside the wagon as he often did on trips.
Jerome had been with Gareth and Tobias since he was a puppy. Now at 130 pounds of adult dog, most people chose to let Jerome do whatever he wanted to do. Jerome deigned to take orders from both Gareth and Tobias but ignored everybody else. Seeing Jerome walk up to Gareth as if the world belonged to him, the servants wisely chose to give ground. He might be a dog but nobody had told him that.
Having spent so much time on the road with Jerome, Gareth also tended to forget that Jerome was not human. When they were led in Gareth motioned Jerome to follow them, not considering that the owner of this house might not want Jerome inside.
Martin Rolfing, their host, met them at the doorway and led them to the library. Martin appeared to be somewhere around Tobias’ age but because of the stories Tobias had told him, Gareth had expected a much more physically fit man. The extra weight Martin carried made it obvious those days were behind him. This was a man who made his living at a desk.
That thought was reinforced by all the books in the room. Some were in neat order but most were stacked in little piles of two and three, as if they were too frequently used to return them to the bookcase. Gareth looked at the titles in preparation for the inevitable quizzing from Tobias and started committing them to memory.
It had started as a game on the road to pass the time and was still played as a game. Each would describe in detail a place they had just visited. The loser got to clean that night’s dishes. Tonight would be handled by servants but Gareth had only recently started winning on a regular basis. He wasn’t about to lose tonight.
The titles of the books did not make his task easier. Taking the pile to the left, there was, “Mathematics as a Practical Tool in Bookkeeping,” “Applications of Loosely Coupled Probabilities,” and “Tables for Calculating Coupled Probabilities.” With a start, Gareth realized the author of that last book was their host.
Gareth had never met an author before and wondered what it took to become one. For a moment he considered writing his life story but quickly came to the conclusion that no one would be interested.
Having tried out several spots before he found one to his liking, Jerome had finally settled down slightly behind and to the left of Gareth, where he could watch the servants come and go. Satisfied he could keep an eye on the door, Tobias and Gareth, Jerome laid down to rest.
Several minutes went by while Martin and Tobias reminisced about old times. From the bits and pieces discussed, it sounded like the two of them had served together in the army.
Finally Tobias brought up their visit. Martin looked around the room and got up to close the door. He said, “I don’t think it’s a servant but no sense in taking chances. I’m losing money, a lot of it. It’s obvious that my client list is getting out and I need some help to prevent it.”
Tobias held up a hand and said, “Whoa. Start at the beginning. What is your business?”
Martin grimaced and said, “You’re right, as always. The beginning, I sometimes wonder myself but you want to know how I make and lose my money. You already know that mathematics has always fascinated me. I developed a formula for computing the probability of an event happening based on knowing the probability of two or more loosely coupled variables. It’s not an exact science, it couldn’t be, it’s probability based, but I found I could make money on it.”
Gareth sat there trying to make sense of what Martin had said. Tobias had a different approach. “Try again,” he said. “Tell us how you make money with this knowledge.”
Martin paused a moment as if wondering just how much he would have to dumb down his explanation and started again. “Our current economy is creating enough excess money that a number of people are investing in imports and exports. They may invest as individuals using agents at other ports or as a group chartering the ship and sending their agent. Shipping being what it is with storms, pirates, unpredictable crews and the occasional sea monster, not all shipments arrive intact.
“Some of my friends persuaded me to join in with them and while our cargo did make it to port, it had not been properly secured and received severe water damage. We only recouped about half our cost. This loss started me thinking. I couldn’t depend on any one shipment to make it through intact but if I looked at all the shipments coming through the port, I could predict how many would make it.
“I knew that I could not invest in all the shipments, making my calculations worthless. I discussed my theory with a few close friends but none of them understood what I was talking about and were reluctant to invest.
“It was while I was trying to explain the concept as a series of bets covering all possibilities that I realized that I could place bets on the cargo. If the probability of the cargo making it safely to port was ninety percent, I would charge the owner twenty percent of the value.
“If the cargo was lost or damaged, I would pay the owner the full value of the cargo. If the cargo made it safely to port, I kept all the money. Being one of the few people keeping track of the numbers and understanding what they meant. I made a lot of money.
“Once people understood the concept, I had a lot of customers. I also had a lot of competitors. Most of them based their prices on being lower than everyone else and quickly went out of business. A few though simply made their prices slightly lower than mine. I had to start using contracts and pledging my customers to silence.
“As you can see, this really paid off over the last few years. This year I started losing money. The numbers haven’t shifted significantly but my customers are being targeted. I think one of my competitors figured out a way to shift the odds by paying protection to the pirates.
“A few of the captains that were captured told me the pirate captain had a list he was using. If the cargo was on the list, he took it. Otherwise he and his crew left it alone. I think that list was a list of my customers’ goods. I need your help to stop the leak of information.”
Gareth was the first to speak. “What about the pirate?” he said.
“I may look old and deskbound,” Martin said, as if reading Gareth’s mind. “But I can take care of a pirate on my own. He’s only hired help. I need to find out who’s giving him information.
“I would have trusted my life with everyone that has access to my customer list. Now, I feel betrayed and I can’t trust any of them. That hurts me more than the money I’m losing.”
Silence ensued while each man considered the problem. It was Tobias who broke the silence. “This doesn’t sound quick or easy. Even the most diligent pirates don’t catch every ship coming to harbor. Providing misinformation to all the people you suspect would be the easy way but that takes time. Have you told anyone we were coming?”
“I told the servants we were expecting a visitor for a week or so,” was the response. “I wasn’t expecting you to bring someone else. We’ll have another room set up for Gareth and his dog. That is a dog isn’t it? I’ve never seen one that large.”
Tobias smiled and answering before Gareth could, said, “Jerome is definitely a dog. Did you tell anyone why I was coming?”
Martin shook his head, “It’s been a few years, Tobias, but I still remember the complicated plans you like to put together. I felt it best to wait until you got here and let you decide.”
Tobias stared off into the air for a moment and then looking at Gareth said, “We need to create our own information leak. As of now, Gareth is the guest you were expecting. He’s a distant nephew that heard how much money you are making and wants you to train him. Unfortunately he’s lazy,” Tobias grinned at Gareth as he said it, “and will soon come to the conclusion that betraying you is probably a quicker method to wealth.
“I’m a potion seller who provided transportation to Gareth after his horse was taken by thieves. Apparently Gareth is none too brave either. We’ve become good acquaintances during the trip but not so good that I’d be allowed to sleep in the house. Tomorrow my horse will be lame and I’ll be forced to spend a few days here. Any other details we need to agree on?”
A very brief pause. “Good. Martin, I want you to take Gareth to your office in town and spend some time explaining your business to him as if you actually intend to teach him. Gareth, I want you to appear bright enough to understand this but bored as if you should have accountants doing this for you. Ask lots of questions and throw in a few statements to show you feel you should be rich without having to work.
“I’ll stay here and try to sell potions to the servants. When I fail, I’ll go into town for richer pickings. Let’s try to be back in time for the evening meal.”
———————– INDEX NEXT CHAPTER
